Tag Archives: suckout

Wont get fooled again.


Yesterday got off to a flying start. The little one arrived early am and was on good form. She had us laughing within minutes of walking through the door. In many ways, it was a shame she was going to see her other grandma, but she was coming back later on to stay over. She was very tired when she got back and full of cold again. It seems during the winter months the poor bairn [Geordie for child] always has a cold. As much as I hate to criticise the parents, I feel that because they are so used to going everywhere in the car, they forget that when they get out, it can be very cold and the little one gets chilled quickly. They need to learn to make sure she is well wrapped up if they are going out. But trying to tell them is like talking to the wall.

However, the little one came back and we gave her something to eat and drink and got her ready for bed. She had her story as usual and then went to sleep. She had a coughing session around 9pm, but thankfully it didn’t wake her. So until that point, it had been a good day.

I decided to play some poker last night as I have not much recently. I wished I hadn’t bothered. Sadly, I was sat next to a fishy calling station who did not know where the fold button was and he sucked out on me twice when I had raised pre flop and cbet or check raised him. He just didn’t know he was beat and the last hand I shoved with 33 and he called with A8o and hit the ace on the turn. Now calling in that spot with A8o is a pretty terrible play. The fellas stats are lousy. He has a very high VPIP [voluntary put in pot] but a very low PFR [pre flop raise] and also a low AF [aggression factor]. Those 3 stats alone tell you a great deal about the player, but then combine those stats with 3bet and cbet stats and how often they execute those plays, or fold to those plays and you get an even bigger picture. Throw in a couple of position stats and steal folds and you have a very good idea what you are up against. The stats of this player are a joke. He is a real calling station who will play over 40% of starting hands and that can climb to over 50% during some games. He seldom raises, never 3bets and folds to cbets 80% of the time. But last night, he hit 2 and 3 outers to take me down and bust me. Thankfully, recently I have turned the chat off to pay more attention to my game and not get distracted by small talk. That prevented me from calling him a few choice names and I just closed the table, closed the room and went and made a brew [cup of tea]. I let it go and moved on.

I chatted with a mate on Yahoo for a bit about his new laptop and a few other things and then decided it was time to play a few DoN games to finish my night off. So I opened a $3 and a $2 game up and got playing. The $3 went well and I had a decent sized stack by the time we got to the bubble. I stayed out of trouble, folded a couple of big hands to other big stacks and finished in the money. The $2 didn’t go so well. I was not hitting very much and was soon down to 1000 chips and continued to spew even with good hands like AK and AQ and middle PP. It wasn’t long until I busted out of that as it’s no good getting to the bubble and blinding out. I am shoving with a very wide range as soon as the chance presents itself. It’s all in or fold mode and sadly it was all in and busted. I went with A7s in mid position and was called by A9o and they hit the 9 on the flop and I couldn’t improve.

So a 50% success rate to start, pretty standard for me. I always appear to take my time in finding my rhythm and try not to get involved too early. It’s not often you will stack someone early in a DoN game, unless you have AA, KK v QQ or lower and your opponent shoves thinking they are ahead. Thats about the only time you will double up early. Theres always some idiot who will shove early when the blinds are 10/20. Why they do it I have no idea, they risk a lot for little reward and you often find its with marginal hands as well.

But anyway, I opened up another couple of DoN tables. The $3 games were slow last night, but the $2 games were coming thick and fast, so I opted to play two of those. Now I am not one to brag about my skills or ability at a poker table, but for some unknown reason, I do better at the $3 than I do at the $2 games. I can’t identify why. I look through my stats on HEM [Holdem Manager] and there’s nothing there that would indicate a leak at the $2 games. At least not to my eyes anyway. I think I might have to invest in Leakbuster for HEM before too long if this trend continues. It’s not over a huge sample, it’s about 100 games which is nothing really. I am trying to get my roll up so I can move up to the $5 games which is the level I started playing DoN games before I knew anything about BRM [bankroll management]. Now I understand more about BRM, I know I don’t have a big enough roll yet to move up to the $5 games, so I am grinding away at the $2 and $3 games until I reach a figure that I am happy with and that enables me to move up. The 2 tables I had up were terrible. I was card dead in both games. I had the same fella from Oz next to me in both games, one to my right, one to my left. He is a regular nit and I was picking on him. I took him out of one game with and he took me out of the other when maybe I picked on him once too often. I didn’t mind so much. Losing to regulars is no sin, losing to the players who pop up to see what the DoN games are like is a sin, but thankfully not one I am prone to.

I am building a decent database now around the DoN tables and am trying to use those stats to my benefit. Some players I know now and have a very good idea of how they play. But the scene changes so often that keeping stats about all the players is nigh on impossible. Even so, you can see trends quite early and hopefully take advantage of them. I look through my HH and try to look for hands where I made a mistake or could have played it differently. I use HEM to review games as it’s a very good tool for doing that. Combine it will something like Poker Stove and you can take a lot of information from HH. It’s a very under used tool in my opinion at the micro stakes and I am sure if more players took some time to look through their sessions, they would become better players almost overnight.

In between games, I was reading some article called Concept of the Week on 2+2 forums. For any poker player out there, no matter what your level, you will find something of interest in that thread. I read a couple and came across this name more than once. A full ring player goes by the name of SplitSuit. He has a very good website of his own, does some coaching, makes a few videos and overall, his whole set up looks very impressive. Its one I have bookmarked for future ref and something  I can envisage using at some point. I read so much, sometimes you need a third-party involved to help you put it all together. I feel that’s where I am heading. I need to improve a couple of areas of my game. I need to get hand ranges sorted out and also post flop play. I think for the most part, taking mistakes into account as well, my pre flop game is not too bad and I am reasonably happy with that aspect of my game. But it’s no good have a strong pre flop game if you can’t play post flop. So that’s something I am looking to improve this year if at possible.

The little one slept all night which is a godsend and woke about 6.15am. She is with grandma at the soft play and will return before too long. We are going to make some soup this afternoon and eat it later when daddy gets here. I finished the night at the tables, 100 points down and about break even for the DoN games. I would prefer to take four out of six cashes than 3, but 3 is ok in the overall picture of variance. I don’t want to be doing that too often though, the rake will soon kill a BR if that happens too frequently.

So that was my day yesterday, overall, not too bad, just spoilt by one idiot who thinks its ok to call shoves with A8o and call 4xBB raises  with K4s and chase it down to the river when faced with cbets and value bets. I will take more cash or points from him than he will from me, that’s for sure, but that’s little consolation when he has just sucked out on you 3 times.


Beat up?


Heres the next blog in the life of a part time, wannabe poker player.

Today I am going to delve into the realms of bad beats and suckouts. Anyone who plays poker will know what I am talking about and has no doubt suffered their own fair share of both.

I would estimate, that on average, I hear at least one complaint about a suckout/bad beat per game I play. Thats more than likely being conservative. On each table in a MTT [Multi Table Tournament] theres probably at least one mention per rotation.

I used to feel really aggrovated when I suffered a beat or a suckout. I would be swearing at the screen, cursing my opponent and telling myself that was it, I was done with this crap game played by idiots. But then I came upon a very good poker article about beats and suckouts. It went something along the lines of, that if you put chips into a hand when you think you are ahead and lose to a worse hand, you have done what, in time, will be a profitable move.

Hers a couple of examples of what I mean.

You are playing a MTT game and its about 30 mins in and the blinds are still low. The table is playing pretty tight overall but with one loose agressive player sitting to your right. He has raised a lot of pots and called hands down to the river often with air. So you sit in the hijack and he is in mid position. You get dealt QQ. What are you going to do? its a solid starting hand and you are obviously going to play it. The LAG to your right raises the pot yet again and you decide its time you maybe took some if not all of his chips. You call his 4xBB raise and the action is folded to the BB who also calls. The BB has been rather passive and will often fold to a c bet or 3 bet. The flop comes down, Jd, 8c, 5c. Great! You have the overpair to the board and its looking good to make a good profit here. The BB checks, the Lag puts in a 1/2 pot sized bet and you decide its time to raise the stakes and make him pay. You re raise him to a pot sized bet and the BB folds and the Lag calls. The turn card is Ah. Not a great card for you, but, not too bad either. It could work to your advantage. The lag checks and you check behind him hoping that he will bet big on the river after you show weakness on the turn. The river comes down 2c. Not a great card as it completes the flush draw of the LAG if thats what he has. The LAG checks so you throw out a 2/3 pot bet and he insta raises you all in! WTF right? What do you do? If you call and he has his fluch, you are out. If you fold you are going to be very short stacked with still a long way to go. This happens so frequently its almost odds defying. But, you did the right thing, apart from maybe the turn, thats open to speculation and will depend on the type of player you are. But you got your chips in when it mattered and although you are probably beat here, long term, its a profitable play. Thats what you need to do, thing long term, not instant results, a mistake a lot of new players, including myself make.

So if you look at the situation, after the event, you will be able to see that although maybe not the perfect play, you really did very little wrong. The fact that this time maybe you lost the hand is immaterial, you are going to get players making mistakes and profit from hands like these in the long term. That is what you are after. You want players like this putting money into pots and make mistakes, thats your profit over the long term, so why be annoyed or angry that you got a player to make a mistake.

That ladies and gentlemen is how you can stop these beats and suckouts affecting you. I want opponents to play 64o against me as I know, over the next 10k hands, I am going to take more chips from him than he will take from me, unless variance is a bitch and says otherwise.

Happy flops folks.